The Weekend Weather Forecast: UFC 138

Leben vs Munoz

If I could sum up my sentiments about UFC 138 in a single statement it would be this: a weak card doesn’t mean poor fights. The UFC’s return to the UK shores is drawing a lot of criticism from limeys like myself - but - when it comes down to it we can all be sure that Birmingham’s LG Arena will be electric. Packed with thousands of Mixed Martial Arts fanatics who paid to see the sport they love, played out at the highest level, it will be noisy and it will be glorious.

The storyline of Leben/Munoz just about ties in with the shuffling around in the upper echelons of the decision. Munoz has proved his grappling to be top drawer stuff with recent wins over decent wrestlers Dolloway and Simpson before his tough battle with an ultra elite BJJ blackbelt in the form of Demian Maia.

But with the Crippler… we don’t even have a win streak to speak of. With a single win in recent months against an ageing Wanderlai Silva, he formerly lost in devastating fashion to Brian Stann. And that particular American hero just got dealt his own “red, white and blue ass whooping” from the P4P King of Trash Talk, Chael Sonnen.

Confused?

Well, in short this isn’t a game changing fight and it’s unlikely to be a memorable stand up exchange with Munoz looking for takedowns and effective use of his wrestling.

Munoz’s smart gameplanning with clinch this bout, leaving a frustrated brawler in his wake, possibly summoning a finish at some point in the third.

Pickett vs Barão

“One Punch” Pickett finally gets to fight in the UFC after a very respectable WEC run, including that notable win over Demetrious Johnson. Barao has already racked up one win in the Octagon against Cole Escovedo, but failed to make a lasting impression in the eyes of the fans.

With two well rounded and frantic Bantamweights getting their opportunity to shine, this should be one of the more entertaining fights of the whole night.

I see Brad Pickett transitioning effectively between his solid striking game and clinch-work. If he doesn’t manage a TKO by the end of the 2nd then a unanimous decision should be in the bag.

Alves vs Abedi

Casual fans can be forgiven for being unfamiliar with the career of Papy Abedi. And at 33 his UFC debut hasn’t come soon enough - but is he being thrown to a very hungry wolf?

Thiago Alves is a big Welterweight and he knows how to throw his weight around when it comes to Muay Thai. As an awesome striker Alves has only faltered in the past 8 years against decent wrestlers - most recently Fitch, Story and of course GSP at UFC 100.

Please God can we have a full on kickboxing war? At least in loving memory of K1. These guys are more than capable of showcasing high level MMA striking and Abedi may be in for a surprise with zero losses to date.

I’ve got Thiago Alves kneeing and shinning his way to a brutal TKO in the 1st or 2nd with both guys uncorking early on. Accompanied by an arena full of giddy and delighted Brits.

The Weekend Weather Forecast: UFC 137

BJ Penn vs Nick Diaz

The long and winding road to 137 has taken many twists and turns. Despite the champ’s injury setbacks we’ve been left with a pretty damn awesome main event and another piece in the Welterweight contender puzzle. Two high-level Jiu Jitsu players with ace boxing is a decent recipe for a sick fight.

Guessing which BJ shows up to fight has in itself become meme-worthy, but this is Nick’s fight to lose with his tentacle reach and solid gas tank.  

Diaz takes this one by sheer tenacity - the accomplished triathlete will grind out a convincing decision win.

Cheick Kongo vs Matt Mitrione

Mitrione has only 5 wins, but a clean sheet to boot. If he can dip, duck and dodge the inevitable groin whalloping that Kongo has patented - then he may just make it 6. Matt looks fitter, better and stronger with every outing. Though Cheick hasn’t threatened to become a serious contender, even with his most impressive wins, he has rocked the champ and there’s not doubt either of these guys could end this fight in a heartbeat. But…

Vive le Meathead - Matt has no trouble letting his hands go and could manage a TKO against the big French dude before they reach the third.

CroCop vs Roy Nelson

It’s hard to imagine this being anywhere near the “loser leaves town” match that their records may indicate. It could be true for a hundred other fighters in the roster but these guys are surely going to stick around after Saturday night, win, lose or draw.

Nelson’s loss to JDS was respectable enough in that he kept swinging and showed a great deal of heart. But the respect he garnered was hemorrhaged with a poor showing against Mir. Roy attributed put his gassing down to sickness but we’ll get a surer indication of his gas tank if this one goes to the scorecards, which is quite likely.

A healthy Roy could take this with a decent boxing performance but could end up playing it safe with a hefty losing streak at stake.

However… Mirko seems to want this badly enough. And I want to see him take this so badly that I admit my judgement may well be impaired. There’s (some) life left in this old dog and it’s enough to strike sharper and more effectively in the judge’s eyes.

The Weekend Weather Forecast: UFC 136

Edgar vs Maynard

Frankie & Gray set the bar high on New Year’s day, putting one the most stunning 5 round wars ever witnessed in the Octagon. This trilogy has become more compelling with each round, especially as their first outing didn’t seem to have much bearing on the Lightweight division. Now facing each other once again, we’re all poised to see how the storyline plays out in the UFC’s most stacked weight class.

I just cannot imagine another 10-8 round either way but I do reckon these guys will go hard again until they call time. I think Frankie’s speed and transitional skills will be too much for the larger Gray. 

Edgar by Unanimous Decision - and finally getting some long overdue props

Aldo vs Florian

Such an irony that there is much talk of Aldo’s struggle to make 145, when the former middleweight is discretely pressing on with his second outing to Feather.

Jr. has not only made this division his home, his 12 fight win-streak is a testament to his dominance and experience at the top. With 20 fights apiece, the Brazilian has only lost one bout, though Florian (suffering 5 losses) has arguably faced more elite competition in the UFC.

10 years in age seperates these guys and I’m fascinated to see if Kenny can anywhere near keep up with the pace the 25 year old will set. I highly doubt it.

Aldo will lumberjack Florian for 2.5 rounds before a TKO finish

Sonnen vs Stann

A match up that seems less clear cut, but likely boils down to wrestling and Duracell endurance. Actual wrestling credentials are invalid as this is MMA and the former title contender has a portfolio of outmuscling and outworking whoever is in front of him… with improved sub defence he would be a certified beast.

Sonnen will remind people that he’s not actually that exciting and rarely finishes fights. Stann will absolutely be set to seek and destroy but will find that KO all too elusive.

Chael by Unanimous Decision - smother & smash